Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230809 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.70    128.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  32.6  18.0  12.6  17.1  19.0  19.0  19.0  N  U  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  11.0  19.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.4  69.3  78.0  78.0  43.2  10.7  10.7  10.7  N  U  N  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  39.0 -19.0 -14.0  45.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  46.0  41.0  43.0  49.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  14.0  12.0  -3.0   0.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        1.0%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        4.3%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        1.8%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        1.8%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.7%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.24

 WP062023 230809 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.70    128.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.