Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230810 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.40    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  13.7  17.7  17.6  17.2  28.4  37.2  44.3  N  F  F  F  F  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0   9.0  10.0  16.0  16.0  14.0  17.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.6  96.6  93.0  91.2  91.2  89.4  86.0  87.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -31.0 -30.0  17.0  72.0  44.0  60.0  46.0  49.0 VU VU  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  37.0  36.0  39.0  46.0  49.0  52.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   8.0   5.0   5.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.1%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.1%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        0.1%        0.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.84

 WP062023 230810 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.40    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.