Rapid Intensification Guidance WP062023 230810 12UTC Storm Located at : 37.40 127.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.70 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.6 15.8 12.7 21.4 30.5 41.5 46.6 45.8 F F F N N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 17.0 12.0 10.0 6.0 23.0 1.0 23.0 2.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 101.6 99.8 89.3 84.6 96.2 96.2 94.4 91.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -4.0 44.0 63.0 56.0 36.0 50.0 27.0 29.0 U N N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 40.0 39.0 46.0 53.0 55.0 51.0 44.0 VU VU VU VU U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 7.0 14.0 4.0 7.0 1.0 -11.0 N N N U N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.72 WP062023 230810 12UTC Storm Located at : 37.40 127.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.