Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230807 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.10    149.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    154.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  21.0  19.1  14.1  15.9  15.2  13.2  20.3  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  42.0  42.0  43.0  38.0  23.0  21.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  30.0  36.0   4.0  17.0 -34.0   0.0 -16.0  U  N  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  73.0  72.0  68.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0   2.0   3.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        3.1%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        7.8%       30.9%       19.3%
 30kt / 24h        3.9%       15.1%        9.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%       13.7%        8.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%       13.7%        6.8%
 45kt / 36h        8.8%       49.7%       29.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       27.6%       13.8%
 55kt / 48h       18.5%       29.9%       24.2%
 70kt / 48h        7.2%       26.5%       16.9%
 65kt / 72h       13.4%       44.7%       29.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.14

 WP072023 230807 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.10    149.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    154.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  21.0  19.1  14.1  15.9  15.2  13.2  20.3  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  73.0  72.0  68.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0   2.0   3.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%