Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    149.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    151.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  19.1  16.0  16.0  14.6  17.3  22.1  15.2  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  43.0  43.0  40.0  23.0  22.0  24.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  14.0   6.0  -6.0   7.0  18.0  22.0  51.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  58.0  60.0  59.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -6.0  -7.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.8%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        6.3%       28.1%       17.2%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%       13.3%        8.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.6%       12.1%        7.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%       12.1%        6.0%
 45kt / 36h        7.8%       45.7%       26.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       24.1%       12.1%
 55kt / 48h       16.1%       25.4%       20.8%
 70kt / 48h        6.5%       22.1%       14.3%
 65kt / 72h       20.2%       41.7%       30.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.12

 WP072023 230808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    149.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    151.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  19.1  16.0  16.0  14.6  17.3  22.1  15.2  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  58.0  60.0  59.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -6.0  -7.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%