Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230808 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40    148.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  15.3  14.2  14.6  14.2  14.5  18.2  21.4  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  46.0  38.0  28.0  30.0  40.0  30.0  17.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0   1.0   0.0   7.0 -12.0  14.0   3.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  66.0  62.0  57.0  54.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -7.0  -6.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        5.3%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h       10.4%       35.9%       23.2%
 30kt / 24h        8.0%       20.4%       14.2%
 35kt / 24h        8.0%       19.7%       13.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%       19.7%       10.1%
 45kt / 36h       12.5%       46.0%       29.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       25.3%       12.6%
 55kt / 48h       20.4%       29.8%       25.1%
 70kt / 48h        7.6%       20.8%       14.2%
 65kt / 72h       20.1%       34.8%       27.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.18

 WP072023 230808 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40    148.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  15.3  14.2  14.6  14.2  14.5  18.2  21.4  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  66.0  62.0  57.0  54.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -7.0  -6.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%