Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230808 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.50    148.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  14.4  14.2  10.8  13.8  14.2  13.7  22.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  38.0  27.0  22.0  40.0  30.0  23.0  19.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0   5.0  14.0   3.0  15.0  18.0  54.0 -18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  65.0  60.0  57.0  55.0  52.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -8.0  -4.0  -4.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.0%       14.4%       14.7%
 25kt / 24h       28.5%       56.1%       42.3%
 30kt / 24h       27.0%       43.4%       35.2%
 35kt / 24h       27.0%       43.4%       35.2%
 40kt / 24h        7.3%       43.4%       25.4%
 45kt / 36h       29.6%       62.7%       46.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       44.8%       22.4%
 55kt / 48h       25.6%       41.6%       33.6%
 70kt / 48h       11.2%       33.1%       22.2%
 65kt / 72h       13.9%       37.9%       25.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.12

 WP072023 230808 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.50    148.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  14.4  14.2  10.8  13.8  14.2  13.7  22.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  65.0  60.0  57.0  55.0  52.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -8.0  -4.0  -4.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%