Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230808 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40    147.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  14.4  15.3  11.2  12.6  11.8  17.0  20.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  32.0  23.0  26.0  36.0  25.0  21.0  22.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  28.0  10.0  23.0  31.0  12.0  13.0 -18.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  53.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.6%       19.7%       21.2%
 25kt / 24h       39.6%       61.2%       50.4%
 30kt / 24h       36.6%       51.4%       44.0%
 35kt / 24h       36.6%       51.4%       44.0%
 40kt / 24h       12.5%       51.4%       31.9%
 45kt / 36h       38.8%       63.2%       51.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       45.8%       22.9%
 55kt / 48h       31.8%       46.9%       39.4%
 70kt / 48h       17.8%       34.2%       26.0%
 65kt / 72h       15.7%       33.4%       24.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.10

 WP072023 230808 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40    147.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  14.4  15.3  11.2  12.6  11.8  17.0  20.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  53.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%