Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230809 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.50    147.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  13.7  11.1  14.1  12.6  15.5  20.0  15.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  24.0  28.0  39.0  40.0  34.0  26.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  10.0  15.0   2.0  36.0  62.0 -32.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  N  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  56.0  63.0  57.0  58.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.5%       16.0%       16.3%
 25kt / 24h       29.7%       53.6%       41.6%
 30kt / 24h       28.5%       45.3%       36.9%
 35kt / 24h       28.5%       45.3%       36.9%
 40kt / 24h       10.0%       45.3%       27.6%
 45kt / 36h       33.7%       48.1%       40.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       29.9%       14.9%
 55kt / 48h       26.7%       38.3%       32.5%
 70kt / 48h       12.5%       19.8%       16.1%
 65kt / 72h       13.3%       22.4%       17.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.90

 WP072023 230809 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.50    147.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  13.7  11.1  14.1  12.6  15.5  20.0  15.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  56.0  63.0  57.0  58.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%