Rapid Intensification Guidance WP072023 230809 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.50 146.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 58.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 36.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.8 11.6 14.3 13.7 12.9 17.3 17.2 16.9 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 25.0 32.0 41.0 44.0 39.0 29.0 22.0 23.0 U U N N U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 16.0 10.0 -16.0 -3.0 61.0 -14.0 -11.0 -10.0 U U U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 55.0 56.0 54.0 54.0 53.0 54.0 53.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.7% 15.5% 13.6% 25kt / 24h 24.8% 52.6% 38.7% 30kt / 24h 21.8% 45.0% 33.4% 35kt / 24h 21.8% 45.0% 33.4% 40kt / 24h 6.3% 44.9% 25.6% 45kt / 36h 28.2% 46.3% 37.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 28.7% 14.3% 55kt / 48h 23.4% 36.5% 29.9% 70kt / 48h 8.6% 15.7% 12.2% 65kt / 72h 13.1% 19.2% 16.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.86 WP072023 230809 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.50 146.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.8 11.6 14.3 13.7 12.9 17.3 17.2 16.9 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 55.0 56.0 54.0 54.0 53.0 54.0 53.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%