Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230809 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.70    145.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.2  15.2  17.0  15.2  14.1  14.7  15.4  23.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  43.0  45.0  43.0  38.0  27.0  22.0  23.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  14.0  26.0   6.0   1.0 -23.0   0.0  -6.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  55.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  50.0  53.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.1%        8.7%        7.4%
 25kt / 24h       15.9%       37.4%       26.6%
 30kt / 24h       12.8%       27.8%       20.3%
 35kt / 24h       10.1%       27.8%       18.9%
 40kt / 24h        3.8%       27.8%       15.8%
 45kt / 36h       16.8%       26.8%       21.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.6%        6.3%
 55kt / 48h       15.1%       23.6%       19.4%
 70kt / 48h        5.1%        7.2%        6.1%
 65kt / 72h       12.6%       11.7%       12.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.84

 WP072023 230809 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.70    145.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.2  15.2  17.0  15.2  14.1  14.7  15.4  23.9  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  55.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  50.0  53.0  51.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%