Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230809 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.10    144.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  16.1  11.8  12.9  12.3  14.4  20.2  15.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  44.0  42.0  39.0  30.0  24.0  23.0  23.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0   6.0  14.0   6.0 -12.0 -11.0 -15.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  53.0  55.0  51.0  55.0  53.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.0%       12.1%       10.6%
 25kt / 24h       23.0%       48.1%       35.6%
 30kt / 24h       18.6%       42.4%       30.5%
 35kt / 24h       18.6%       42.4%       30.5%
 40kt / 24h        4.9%       41.3%       23.1%
 45kt / 36h       18.4%       30.7%       24.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.1%        8.1%
 55kt / 48h       14.3%       26.8%       20.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        7.4%        5.4%
 65kt / 72h        8.2%       11.2%        9.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.80

 WP072023 230809 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.10    144.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  16.1  11.8  12.9  12.3  14.4  20.2  15.1  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  53.0  55.0  51.0  55.0  53.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%