Rapid Intensification Guidance WP072023 230810 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.20 143.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 69.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 47.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.2 13.7 13.6 15.3 11.6 12.8 16.7 15.6 N F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 52.0 47.0 41.0 34.0 24.0 21.0 21.0 29.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 35.0 30.0 10.0 -1.0 7.0 -9.0 -11.0 35.0 N N U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 53.0 55.0 51.0 53.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 -3.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 36.4% 28.5% 32.5% 25kt / 24h 49.9% 67.0% 58.5% 30kt / 24h 47.3% 64.7% 56.0% 35kt / 24h 47.3% 64.7% 56.0% 40kt / 24h 25.2% 63.8% 44.5% 45kt / 36h 38.6% 52.1% 45.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 35.1% 17.6% 55kt / 48h 23.6% 40.8% 32.2% 70kt / 48h 8.1% 16.9% 12.5% 65kt / 72h 11.9% 19.2% 15.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.76 WP072023 230810 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.20 143.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.2 13.7 13.6 15.3 11.6 12.8 16.7 15.6 N U U U U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 53.0 55.0 51.0 53.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 -3.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%