Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230810 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.50    143.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  15.8  14.9  14.7  13.4  17.9  13.5  16.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  36.0  27.0  20.0  17.0  19.0  32.0  16.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  94.3  94.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  11.0   2.0 -17.0  -5.0  -9.0  17.0   6.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  51.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       44.9%       31.0%       37.9%
 25kt / 24h       55.6%       64.9%       60.2%
 30kt / 24h       55.6%       64.8%       60.2%
 35kt / 24h       55.6%       64.8%       60.2%
 40kt / 24h       24.0%       64.0%       44.0%
 45kt / 36h       35.6%       43.0%       39.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       27.1%       13.5%
 55kt / 48h       15.1%       32.0%       23.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.3%       10.0%        7.2%
 65kt / 72h        7.6%       11.9%        9.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 WP072023 230810 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.50    143.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  15.8  14.9  14.7  13.4  17.9  13.5  16.7  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  51.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%