Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230810 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.00    143.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7  13.8  15.9  17.6  12.1  24.1  15.8  22.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  25.0  19.0  17.0  18.0  26.0  26.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  87.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  19.0 -15.0  -3.0  -4.0 -11.0   2.0 -16.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  51.0  52.0  48.0  47.0  51.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       59.8%       47.9%       53.8%
 25kt / 24h       66.0%       78.2%       72.1%
 30kt / 24h       66.0%       78.2%       72.1%
 35kt / 24h       66.0%       78.2%       72.1%
 40kt / 24h       38.5%       76.7%       57.6%
 45kt / 36h       40.6%       50.0%       45.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       34.7%       17.4%
 55kt / 48h       13.8%       34.1%       24.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.0%        9.8%        6.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        8.1%        5.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP072023 230810 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.00    143.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7  13.8  15.9  17.6  12.1  24.1  15.8  22.6  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  51.0  52.0  48.0  47.0  51.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%