Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230810 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30    142.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.1  17.3  16.4  12.4  13.8  16.1  20.5  15.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  23.0  19.0  17.0  16.0  19.0  29.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0   4.0 -10.0 -17.0  -8.0 -25.0 -17.0 -15.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  47.0  45.0  42.0  39.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       65.3%       34.2%       49.8%
 25kt / 24h       50.1%       48.7%       49.4%
 30kt / 24h       50.1%       48.4%       49.3%
 35kt / 24h       50.1%       48.4%       49.3%
 40kt / 24h       33.4%       47.2%       40.3%
 45kt / 36h       72.2%       38.8%       55.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       27.2%       13.6%
 55kt / 48h        8.9%        8.8%        8.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 WP072023 230810 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30    142.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.1  17.3  16.4  12.4  13.8  16.1  20.5  15.3  U  N  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  47.0  45.0  42.0  39.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%