Rapid Intensification Guidance WP072023 230811 00UTC Storm Located at : 26.80 142.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 86.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 54.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.3 15.8 12.2 12.0 13.9 16.8 23.1 14.9 F F F F F F N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 17.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 21.0 37.0 65.0 U U U U U U U N Potential [kt] 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -4.0 -11.0 -18.0 -6.0 -26.0 0.0 -32.0 27.0 U U U U VU U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 50.0 51.0 47.0 42.0 41.0 42.0 42.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 49.8% 22.0% 35.9% 25kt / 24h 32.4% 30.6% 31.5% 30kt / 24h 32.4% 29.2% 30.8% 35kt / 24h 32.4% 29.2% 30.8% 40kt / 24h 13.5% 27.2% 20.3% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.22 WP072023 230811 00UTC Storm Located at : 26.80 142.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.3 15.8 12.2 12.0 13.9 16.8 23.1 14.9 N U U U U N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 50.0 51.0 47.0 42.0 41.0 42.0 42.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.9% 0.9%