Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230811 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.40    142.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  14.8  13.7  16.1  10.7  21.5  12.0  16.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  19.0  24.0  28.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  49.3  44.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0 -19.0   4.0  12.0 -20.0   0.0  16.0  10.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  44.0  40.0  42.0  42.0  44.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       32.6%       12.6%       22.6%
 25kt / 24h       20.5%       17.2%       18.9%
 30kt / 24h       20.5%       13.8%       17.1%
 35kt / 24h       20.5%       13.8%       17.1%
 40kt / 24h        6.8%       13.4%       10.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.08

 WP072023 230811 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.40    142.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  14.8  13.7  16.1  10.7  21.5  12.0  16.2  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  44.0  40.0  42.0  42.0  44.0  42.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%