Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230811 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.90    142.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.2  12.9  16.4  15.7  14.9  18.2  14.2  13.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  16.0  16.0  17.0  24.0  66.0  75.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  59.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -33.0 -20.0  -2.0 -17.0 -10.0 -34.0  18.0  -9.0 VU VU  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  46.0  42.0  41.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  42.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.6%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        3.3%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.2%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        2.0%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h       16.7%        1.3%        9.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 WP072023 230811 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.90    142.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.2  12.9  16.4  15.7  14.9  18.2  14.2  13.6  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  46.0  42.0  41.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  42.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.1%        1.5%