Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230811 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20    142.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  14.0  15.5  12.5  20.1  11.5  12.9  15.3  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  16.0  17.0  19.0  22.0  26.0  18.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  69.3  64.6  64.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -24.0  -7.0  -6.0 -25.0  -6.0   4.0   3.0   6.0 VU  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  43.0  41.0  42.0  40.0  41.0  42.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.5%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        4.4%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        3.0%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.7%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.7%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        7.6%        1.1%        4.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 WP072023 230811 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20    142.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  14.0  15.5  12.5  20.1  11.5  12.9  15.3  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  43.0  41.0  42.0  40.0  41.0  42.0  45.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%