Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230812 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.50    141.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  12.2  10.5  14.8  19.0  16.5  13.7  12.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  20.0  22.0  24.0  36.0  29.0  20.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  77.0  72.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0   3.0 -17.0   2.0 -17.0  26.0 -22.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  44.0  43.0  41.0  38.0  42.0  46.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -3.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        3.7%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%       13.8%        8.9%
 30kt / 24h        3.7%       11.5%        7.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.3%       11.5%        7.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%       11.1%        5.8%
 45kt / 36h        7.1%        3.2%        5.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        4.1%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        5.2%        1.3%        3.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 WP072023 230812 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.50    141.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  12.2  10.5  14.8  19.0  16.5  13.7  12.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  44.0  43.0  41.0  38.0  42.0  46.0  52.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -3.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%