Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230812 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.90    141.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  12.9  16.1  20.0  16.2  16.2   9.2  17.8  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  22.0  23.0  22.0  29.0  20.0  13.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  77.0  74.6  70.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0 -26.0  -3.0   6.0   7.0   2.0  19.0  49.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  44.0  43.0  43.0  40.0  43.0  45.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        3.7%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%       11.3%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%        8.4%        6.5%
 35kt / 24h        4.6%        8.4%        6.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        8.4%        4.5%
 45kt / 36h        8.6%        3.1%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        3.2%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        3.8%        1.1%        2.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 WP072023 230812 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.90    141.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  12.9  16.1  20.0  16.2  16.2   9.2  17.8  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  44.0  43.0  43.0  40.0  43.0  45.0  50.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%