Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230812 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.10    140.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.4  15.3  17.8  19.0  21.1  17.1  17.3  24.0  F  F  F  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  23.0  22.0  21.0  22.0  12.0   1.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  82.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0  13.0  28.0   0.0  10.0 -36.0  47.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  44.0  42.0  42.0  44.0  42.0  48.0  53.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -4.0  -3.0  -5.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.7%        5.8%        6.8%
 25kt / 24h        9.1%       16.4%       12.8%
 30kt / 24h        9.1%       12.8%       11.0%
 35kt / 24h        8.6%       12.8%       10.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.9%       12.8%        7.8%
 45kt / 36h       11.2%        4.1%        7.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        4.1%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        1.2%        2.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 WP072023 230812 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.10    140.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.4  15.3  17.8  19.0  21.1  17.1  17.3  24.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  44.0  42.0  42.0  44.0  42.0  48.0  53.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -4.0  -3.0  -5.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%