Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230812 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.30    140.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  16.7  17.3  19.7  20.8  15.0  22.3  24.8  F  F  F  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  24.0  24.0  26.0  18.0  16.0  26.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  99.3  94.6 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  17.0   7.0   5.0   2.0  25.0  42.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  46.0  47.0  46.0  45.0  46.0  51.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0 -10.0  -3.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.6%       13.6%       12.1%
 25kt / 24h       18.8%       40.5%       29.7%
 30kt / 24h       18.0%       36.4%       27.2%
 35kt / 24h       18.0%       36.4%       27.2%
 40kt / 24h        4.6%       35.3%       20.0%
 45kt / 36h       11.5%       17.9%       14.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.7%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        5.5%       15.0%       10.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        3.2%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        6.9%        5.5%        6.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 WP072023 230812 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.30    140.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  16.7  17.3  19.7  20.8  15.0  22.3  24.8  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  46.0  47.0  46.0  45.0  46.0  51.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0 -10.0  -3.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%