Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.70    139.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  15.5  17.0  21.5  12.5  14.8  23.1  37.9  N  F  F  N  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  28.0  26.0  23.0  17.0  14.0  29.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  94.3  94.3  94.3  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0   4.0   3.0  18.0  -9.0  48.0   9.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  44.0  45.0  57.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -5.0  -6.0  -7.0 -11.0   9.0  15.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.2%       17.2%       19.2%
 25kt / 24h       31.6%       45.0%       38.3%
 30kt / 24h       31.6%       41.6%       36.6%
 35kt / 24h       31.6%       41.6%       36.6%
 40kt / 24h        9.9%       41.0%       25.4%
 45kt / 36h       20.8%       22.3%       21.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.3%        5.2%
 55kt / 48h        9.6%       20.3%       14.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        5.0%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%        4.7%        4.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.56

 WP072023 230813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.70    139.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  15.5  17.0  21.5  12.5  14.8  23.1  37.9  N  U  N  N  U  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  44.0  45.0  57.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -5.0  -6.0  -7.0 -11.0   9.0  15.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%