Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230813 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.20    138.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  15.1  21.2  22.1  16.1  19.4  22.9  39.0  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  25.0  21.0  16.0  17.0  19.0  10.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  94.3  92.0  94.3  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0   2.0  22.0  14.0   5.0  49.0  59.0  88.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  50.0  50.0  53.0  55.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0 -11.0   1.0  10.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.7%       22.3%       21.0%
 25kt / 24h       35.9%       48.9%       42.4%
 30kt / 24h       35.9%       47.1%       41.5%
 35kt / 24h       35.9%       47.1%       41.5%
 40kt / 24h        7.1%       45.7%       26.4%
 45kt / 36h       16.8%       24.1%       20.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.7%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%       19.7%       13.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        4.7%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h        4.2%        4.5%        4.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 WP072023 230813 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.20    138.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  15.1  21.2  22.1  16.1  19.4  22.9  39.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  50.0  50.0  53.0  55.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0 -11.0   1.0  10.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%