Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230813 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.70    138.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  22.3  22.3  18.7  14.8  24.0  40.6  45.5  F  N  N  N  F  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  21.0  16.0  15.0   5.0   2.0   5.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  94.3  92.0  87.3  94.3  95.0  68.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0   4.0   1.0 -13.0  64.0  54.0  73.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  48.0  46.0  54.0  56.0  60.0  64.0  U VU  U VU  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.3%       14.3%       13.3%
 25kt / 24h       21.5%       37.1%       29.3%
 30kt / 24h       21.5%       34.6%       28.1%
 35kt / 24h       21.5%       34.6%       28.1%
 40kt / 24h        3.5%       33.1%       18.3%
 45kt / 36h       12.6%       17.1%       14.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.5%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.3%       12.9%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.48

 WP072023 230813 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.70    138.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  22.3  22.3  18.7  14.8  24.0  40.6  45.5  U  N  N  N  U  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  48.0  46.0  54.0  56.0  60.0  64.0  F VF  F VF  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%