Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230813 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.20    138.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  22.0  20.0  14.9  16.6  22.2  34.6  31.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  15.0  13.0  18.0  21.0  10.0   8.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  84.3  84.3  82.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  62.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   9.0 -16.0  -1.0  50.0  52.0  75.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  49.0  48.0  52.0  50.0  55.0  62.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0  -1.0  -9.0   7.0  16.0   9.0  18.0  N  F  N  F  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       40.2%       24.7%       32.4%
 25kt / 24h       49.4%       50.4%       49.9%
 30kt / 24h       49.4%       50.4%       49.9%
 35kt / 24h       49.4%       50.4%       49.9%
 40kt / 24h       14.2%       48.7%       31.4%
 45kt / 36h       33.5%       29.8%       31.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.5%        8.2%
 55kt / 48h        7.3%       17.2%       12.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        4.7%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        2.5%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 WP072023 230813 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.20    138.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  22.0  20.0  14.9  16.6  22.2  34.6  31.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  49.0  48.0  52.0  50.0  55.0  62.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0  -1.0  -9.0   7.0  16.0   9.0  18.0  N  U  N  U  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%