Rapid Intensification Guidance WP072023 230814 00UTC Storm Located at : 31.80 137.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 78.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 53.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.4 18.5 13.4 13.0 20.4 34.0 41.6 42.8 N N F F N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 15.0 19.0 31.0 24.0 6.0 37.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 79.3 77.0 79.3 80.0 80.0 80.0 63.6 10.9 N U N N N N U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 25.0 -15.0 -5.0 39.0 35.0 58.0 55.0 50.0 U U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 48.0 52.0 53.0 50.0 57.0 62.0 60.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -4.0 -13.0 1.0 7.0 6.0 10.0 12.0 F F VF N N N U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 33.3% 18.8% 26.1% 25kt / 24h 46.7% 47.7% 47.2% 30kt / 24h 46.7% 47.7% 47.2% 35kt / 24h 46.7% 47.7% 47.2% 40kt / 24h 13.6% 45.9% 29.8% 45kt / 36h 36.7% 25.8% 31.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 13.7% 6.8% 55kt / 48h 4.1% 9.0% 6.5% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.44 WP072023 230814 00UTC Storm Located at : 31.80 137.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.4 18.5 13.4 13.0 20.4 34.0 41.6 42.8 N N U U N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 48.0 52.0 53.0 50.0 57.0 62.0 60.0 F F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -4.0 -13.0 1.0 7.0 6.0 10.0 12.0 U U VU N N N F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2%