Rapid Intensification Guidance WP072023 230814 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.30 136.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 60.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 30.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.8 13.9 13.3 18.9 27.3 44.0 37.9 45.1 F F F N N VU U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 17.0 36.0 18.0 6.0 3.0 10.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 79.3 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 33.0 7.7 N N N N N N VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -19.0 -16.0 26.0 54.0 42.0 78.0 34.0 48.0 U U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 52.0 53.0 50.0 53.0 59.0 64.0 61.0 VU U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -11.0 -2.0 2.0 6.0 9.0 15.0 16.0 F F N N N U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 18.1% 13.6% 15.9% 25kt / 24h 29.3% 33.4% 31.4% 30kt / 24h 29.3% 30.3% 29.8% 35kt / 24h 29.3% 30.3% 29.8% 40kt / 24h 6.5% 30.1% 18.3% 45kt / 36h 22.5% 11.0% 16.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 4.3% 2.2% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 3.4% 2.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.52 WP072023 230814 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.30 136.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.8 13.9 13.3 18.9 27.3 44.0 37.9 45.1 U U U N N VF F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 52.0 53.0 50.0 53.0 59.0 64.0 61.0 VF F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -11.0 -2.0 2.0 6.0 9.0 15.0 16.0 U U N N N F F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%