Rapid Intensification Guidance WP072023 230814 12UTC Storm Located at : 32.70 136.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 11.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.9 14.3 16.6 21.6 32.2 40.0 40.3 47.2 F F F N U U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 31.0 15.0 4.0 9.0 30.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 61.5 14.3 -22.8 N N N N N U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 7.0 38.0 60.0 38.0 79.0 69.0 50.0 -9.0 U N N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 52.0 50.0 52.0 59.0 64.0 67.0 63.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -7.0 0.0 4.0 7.0 12.0 11.0 23.0 VF F N N N U U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.7% 4.8% 7.7% 25kt / 24h 9.8% 12.2% 11.0% 30kt / 24h 9.8% 8.5% 9.1% 35kt / 24h 9.8% 8.5% 9.1% 40kt / 24h 2.9% 8.5% 5.7% 45kt / 36h 13.3% 2.5% 7.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.62 WP072023 230814 12UTC Storm Located at : 32.70 136.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.9 14.3 16.6 21.6 32.2 40.0 40.3 47.2 U U N N N F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 52.0 50.0 52.0 59.0 64.0 67.0 63.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -7.0 0.0 4.0 7.0 12.0 11.0 23.0 VU U N N N F F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2%