Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230814 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.40    136.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  18.6  20.3  25.1  42.2  41.0  45.0  55.8  F  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  16.0   1.0   6.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  84.3  14.8  -8.6 -26.0  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  45.0  32.0  41.0  73.0  68.0  39.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  54.0  57.0  63.0  67.0  64.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0   3.0   3.0   6.0  10.0  11.0  25.0  22.0  F  N  N  N  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.4%        2.7%        4.6%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%        7.8%        6.4%
 30kt / 24h        5.0%        4.9%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        4.3%        4.9%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        4.9%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.7%        0.9%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 WP072023 230814 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.40    136.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  18.6  20.3  25.1  42.2  41.0  45.0  55.8  U  N  N  N VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  54.0  57.0  63.0  67.0  64.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0   3.0   3.0   6.0  10.0  11.0  25.0  22.0  U  N  N  N  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%