Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230815 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.30    135.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  27.3  30.0  38.3  44.7  46.8  50.1  51.1  F  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0   5.0   6.0   4.0  15.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 104.3 105.0 104.3  66.0  25.0   8.4 -12.1  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  24.0  33.0  59.0  47.0  60.0  19.0  15.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  55.0  58.0  60.0  66.0  65.0  67.0  68.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  10.0  10.0  12.0  19.0  15.0  14.0  10.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 WP072023 230815 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.30    135.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  27.3  30.0  38.3  44.7  46.8  50.1  51.1  N  N  N  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  55.0  58.0  60.0  66.0  65.0  67.0  68.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  10.0  10.0  12.0  19.0  15.0  14.0  10.0  N  F  F  F VF  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%