Rapid Intensification Guidance WP072023 230815 06UTC Storm Located at : 35.40 134.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 8.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 134.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.3 23.4 36.8 41.3 40.2 42.3 43.7 45.3 N N U VU U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 5.0 6.0 4.0 33.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 114.3 114.3 112.0 94.4 31.6 7.7 5.9 -3.6 N N N N VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 36.0 52.0 83.0 58.0 84.0 36.0 13.0 -3.0 N N N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 59.0 59.0 61.0 66.0 65.0 68.0 67.0 U U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 1.0 4.0 13.0 12.0 15.0 -13.0 -19.0 N N N U U U VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.22 WP072023 230815 06UTC Storm Located at : 35.40 134.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 134.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.3 23.4 36.8 41.3 40.2 42.3 43.7 45.3 N N F VF F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 59.0 59.0 61.0 66.0 65.0 68.0 67.0 F F F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 1.0 4.0 13.0 12.0 15.0 -13.0 -19.0 N N N F F F VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2%