Rapid Intensification Guidance WP072023 230815 12UTC Storm Located at : 36.20 134.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.30 F TC SIZE [%] 133.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.0 32.6 38.2 37.1 35.2 38.8 46.6 48.3 N U U U U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 4.0 36.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 120.0 119.3 103.6 68.6 21.2 15.5 3.6 0.8 N N N U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 61.0 88.0 77.0 46.0 64.0 -21.0 -6.0 -22.0 N F N N N VU U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 59.0 60.0 63.0 63.0 65.0 64.0 60.0 U U N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 9.0 11.0 11.0 4.0 8.0 -14.0 -32.0 N U U U N U VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.74 WP072023 230815 12UTC Storm Located at : 36.20 134.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 133.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.0 32.6 38.2 37.1 35.2 38.8 46.6 48.3 N F F F F F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 59.0 60.0 63.0 63.0 65.0 64.0 60.0 F F N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 9.0 11.0 11.0 4.0 8.0 -14.0 -32.0 N F F F N F VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%