Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230816 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.10    135.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.2  36.6  34.5  36.4  41.8  39.6  39.6  39.6  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0  21.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0  91.6  61.7  44.7  18.7   3.6   3.6   3.6  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  65.0  67.0  28.0   0.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  64.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  19.0   7.0  13.0  16.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U VU  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.68

 WP072023 230816 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.10    135.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.