Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072023 230817 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     44.90    139.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.1  35.8  35.2  36.8  35.6  34.8  34.0  60.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         26.8  16.5  13.2  10.2  10.0  10.6  10.2   9.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0  33.0  48.0  20.0   5.0  45.0  -7.0 -27.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  59.0  63.0  54.0  34.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0   5.0   4.0  -2.0  26.0  26.0  21.0  10.0  U  N  N  N VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 17.14

 WP072023 230817 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     44.90    139.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.