Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082023 230823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    150.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  17.2  12.3  17.1  13.5  17.2  12.9  17.9  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  101.0 101.0 101.0 101.0 101.0 105.0  91.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  57.0  36.0  23.0   5.0  66.0  90.0 108.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  61.0  62.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.5%        4.5%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h       22.4%       41.7%       32.0%
 30kt / 24h       14.9%       19.0%       17.0%
 35kt / 24h        7.9%       17.9%       12.9%
 40kt / 24h        7.9%       17.9%       12.9%
 45kt / 36h       32.9%       59.3%       46.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       31.8%       15.9%
 55kt / 48h       50.6%       40.1%       45.4%
 70kt / 48h       28.2%       38.0%       33.1%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       73.3%       67.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.90

 WP082023 230823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    150.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  17.2  12.3  17.1  13.5  17.2  12.9  17.9  N  N  U  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  61.0  62.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%