Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082023 230823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    149.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4   8.7  14.0  13.3  14.4  18.0  17.3  16.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  103.0 108.0 109.0 110.0 104.0 105.0  68.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  61.0  59.0  41.0  20.0  59.0  97.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  66.0  73.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.0%        7.7%        5.8%
 25kt / 24h       29.7%       55.2%       42.5%
 30kt / 24h       17.2%       33.0%       25.1%
 35kt / 24h        5.7%       30.3%       18.0%
 40kt / 24h        5.7%       30.3%       18.0%
 45kt / 36h       38.9%       70.7%       54.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       47.5%       23.7%
 55kt / 48h       51.7%       56.5%       54.1%
 70kt / 48h       46.0%       51.8%       48.9%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       77.2%       69.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.80

 WP082023 230823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    149.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4   8.7  14.0  13.3  14.4  18.0  17.3  16.4  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  66.0  73.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%