Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082023 230823 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    149.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.8  12.3  12.5  13.1  20.3  18.6  18.0  26.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  101.0 101.0 101.0 100.0  80.0  47.0  25.0   9.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 127.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  58.0  45.0  20.0  33.0 106.0  93.0  31.0  N  N  N  U  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  67.0  69.0  74.0  77.0  67.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  13.0  10.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        5.0%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h       17.9%       46.2%       32.1%
 30kt / 24h        9.2%       25.2%       17.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%       21.7%       12.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       21.7%       11.6%
 45kt / 36h       24.5%       59.4%       41.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       33.2%       16.6%
 55kt / 48h       50.4%       41.8%       46.1%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       33.4%       29.1%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       54.7%       58.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.80

 WP082023 230823 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    149.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.8  12.3  12.5  13.1  20.3  18.6  18.0  26.8  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  67.0  69.0  74.0  77.0  67.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  13.0  10.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%