Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082023 230824 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    150.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.8  10.9  14.5  15.7  14.8  14.0  14.4  14.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   96.0  98.0 105.0 110.0  78.0  65.0  46.0  13.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 130.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  65.0  72.0  66.0  95.0 105.0  51.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  70.0  69.0  62.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   8.0  11.0   6.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        6.8%        4.2%
 25kt / 24h       27.7%       56.1%       41.9%
 30kt / 24h       12.4%       35.5%       23.9%
 35kt / 24h        4.3%       31.2%       17.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%       31.2%       16.3%
 45kt / 36h       34.4%       72.0%       53.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       50.4%       25.2%
 55kt / 48h       52.0%       63.5%       57.7%
 70kt / 48h       41.2%       56.1%       48.7%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       76.4%       69.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.88

 WP082023 230824 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    150.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.8  10.9  14.5  15.7  14.8  14.0  14.4  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  70.0  69.0  62.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   8.0  11.0   6.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%