Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082023 230824 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    149.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  17.2  24.7  29.3  35.2  44.7  47.8  52.2  F  F  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   98.0  99.0  77.0  55.0  29.0   9.0  12.0  24.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 134.6 137.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  37.0  53.0  63.0  89.0  76.0  63.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  69.0  70.0  75.0  72.0  61.0  53.0  54.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  13.0  24.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        3.4%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        7.5%       24.5%       16.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%        9.9%        6.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        8.1%        4.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        8.1%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h        6.8%       25.6%       16.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.8%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h        9.4%        7.3%        8.3%
 70kt / 48h        5.4%        4.0%        4.7%
 65kt / 72h       12.3%        4.5%        8.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 WP082023 230824 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    149.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  17.2  24.7  29.3  35.2  44.7  47.8  52.2  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  69.0  70.0  75.0  72.0  61.0  53.0  54.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  13.0  24.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%