Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082023 230824 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    149.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  24.4  36.0  35.1  27.0  33.9  35.4  33.5  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0  98.0 114.0  85.0  61.0  36.0  24.0  22.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 139.3 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0 101.0 119.0  93.0  58.0  42.0  55.0  35.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  61.0  64.0  64.0  60.0  55.0  52.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  15.0  17.0  12.0  15.0   8.0  10.0   9.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.3%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        7.5%       18.0%       12.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        6.0%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        4.8%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        4.8%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        6.4%       20.5%       13.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.5%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h       15.5%        9.4%       12.4%
 70kt / 48h       13.2%        4.4%        8.8%
 65kt / 72h       35.5%        9.8%       22.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.84

 WP082023 230824 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    149.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  24.4  36.0  35.1  27.0  33.9  35.4  33.5  N  N  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  61.0  64.0  64.0  60.0  55.0  52.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  15.0  17.0  12.0  15.0   8.0  10.0   9.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%