Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082023 230825 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    154.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  27.0  21.5  20.0  28.2  29.8  24.1  14.4  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  26.0  22.0  19.0  10.0  11.0   7.0  52.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 122.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   107.0  93.0  45.0  60.0  69.0  46.0  26.0  14.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  67.0  61.0  53.0  57.0  59.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  12.0   4.0   8.0  10.0  29.0  18.0   4.0 VU  U  N  U  U VU VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.2%        4.8%        5.0%
 25kt / 24h       21.6%       36.7%       29.2%
 30kt / 24h       11.3%       20.1%       15.7%
 35kt / 24h        9.5%       20.1%       14.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       20.1%       10.9%
 45kt / 36h        9.8%       31.8%       20.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.7%        6.8%
 55kt / 48h        6.8%       14.4%       10.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.0%        6.3%        4.6%
 65kt / 72h       11.9%       12.8%       12.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.98

 WP082023 230825 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    154.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  27.0  21.5  20.0  28.2  29.8  24.1  14.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  67.0  61.0  53.0  57.0  59.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  12.0   4.0   8.0  10.0  29.0  18.0   4.0 VF  F  N  F  F VF VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%