Rapid Intensification Guidance WP082023 230825 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.10 155.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 30.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 131.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.0 21.8 20.5 24.0 20.7 27.3 20.3 30.1 U N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 22.0 17.0 7.0 16.0 33.0 38.0 28.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 112.3 120.0 120.0 120.0 82.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 86.0 31.0 56.0 75.0 46.0 13.0 36.0 -38.0 F N N N N U N VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 65.0 60.0 54.0 57.0 57.0 62.0 62.0 N N N U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 9.0 1.0 10.0 23.0 18.0 0.0 -11.0 VU U N U VU VU N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.5% 6.5% 8.5% 25kt / 24h 23.8% 37.5% 30.7% 30kt / 24h 14.1% 22.2% 18.2% 35kt / 24h 14.1% 22.2% 18.2% 40kt / 24h 3.8% 22.2% 13.0% 45kt / 36h 14.2% 38.5% 26.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 18.9% 9.4% 55kt / 48h 6.5% 15.7% 11.1% 70kt / 48h 2.4% 7.0% 4.7% 65kt / 72h 4.1% 9.7% 6.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.74 WP082023 230825 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.10 155.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 131.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.0 21.8 20.5 24.0 20.7 27.3 20.3 30.1 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 65.0 60.0 54.0 57.0 57.0 62.0 62.0 N N N F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 9.0 1.0 10.0 23.0 18.0 0.0 -11.0 VF F N F VF VF N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%