Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082023 230825 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50    155.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  21.2  29.1  23.6  27.2  25.3  28.1  27.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  18.0   6.0  10.0  12.0  21.0  12.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 107.9 117.0 120.0 120.0 117.0  60.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  66.0  79.0  49.0  20.0  58.0  64.0  -3.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  58.0  52.0  49.0  50.0  51.0  61.0  60.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0  14.0  25.0  32.0  18.0  -4.0 -17.0  N  N  U VU VU VU  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        2.2%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%       11.9%        8.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        4.9%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        4.9%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        4.9%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%        9.5%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.0%        5.0%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        1.2%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        3.8%        2.5%        3.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 WP082023 230825 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50    155.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  21.2  29.1  23.6  27.2  25.3  28.1  27.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  58.0  52.0  49.0  50.0  51.0  61.0  60.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0  14.0  25.0  32.0  18.0  -4.0 -17.0  N  N  F VF VF VF  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%