Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082023 230825 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10    154.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  23.4  24.0  18.8  33.1  21.3  25.8  27.7  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0   5.0   8.0  14.0  25.0  39.0  47.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 102.9 107.3 115.0 115.0 115.0  94.4  49.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  53.0  37.0  38.0  53.0  86.0  31.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  52.0  48.0  48.0  51.0  55.0  58.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  13.0  12.0  12.0  21.0  -3.0  -8.0  -7.0  U  U  U  U VU  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        3.3%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h        7.3%       18.2%       12.7%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%        9.2%        7.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%        9.2%        6.2%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%        9.2%        5.6%
 45kt / 36h        4.6%       10.8%        7.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.1%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        6.7%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        1.7%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%        2.3%        2.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.44

 WP082023 230825 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10    154.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  23.4  24.0  18.8  33.1  21.3  25.8  27.7  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  52.0  48.0  48.0  51.0  55.0  58.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  13.0  12.0  12.0  21.0  -3.0  -8.0  -7.0  F  F  F  F VF  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%