Rapid Intensification Guidance WP082023 230826 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.30 154.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 39.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.10 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.3 21.6 19.2 22.1 21.2 21.0 23.4 38.2 N N N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 11.0 11.0 13.0 17.0 17.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 107.3 107.3 109.6 115.0 115.0 114.3 65.0 33.3 N N N N N N U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 57.0 53.0 47.0 51.0 -21.0 19.0 -5.0 -4.0 N N N N VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 50.0 49.0 51.0 53.0 60.0 57.0 52.0 U U U U U N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 19.0 5.0 19.0 31.0 16.0 0.0 -11.0 -35.0 VU N VU VU U N F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.1% 4.3% 4.2% 25kt / 24h 10.2% 23.9% 17.0% 30kt / 24h 6.8% 13.2% 10.0% 35kt / 24h 3.7% 13.2% 8.4% 40kt / 24h 3.0% 13.2% 8.1% 45kt / 36h 6.9% 16.7% 11.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 5.8% 2.9% 55kt / 48h 4.3% 9.9% 7.1% 70kt / 48h 1.4% 2.7% 2.0% 65kt / 72h 0.7% 1.8% 1.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.30 WP082023 230826 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.30 154.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.3 21.6 19.2 22.1 21.2 21.0 23.4 38.2 N N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 50.0 49.0 51.0 53.0 60.0 57.0 52.0 F F F F F N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 19.0 5.0 19.0 31.0 16.0 0.0 -11.0 -35.0 VF N VF VF F N U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.4% 0.1% 0.2%