Rapid Intensification Guidance WP082023 230826 06UTC Storm Located at : 26.10 152.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 60.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 29.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.50 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.2 19.3 23.0 25.7 19.5 23.2 26.3 53.1 N N N N N N N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 12.0 12.0 18.0 30.0 49.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U N U U Potential [kt] 107.3 112.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 105.1 54.2 18.4 N N N N N N U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 51.0 47.0 51.0 21.0 24.0 25.0 -30.0 -26.0 N N N U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 49.0 51.0 51.0 56.0 58.0 57.0 46.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 19.0 31.0 21.0 -2.0 -2.0 -24.0 -81.0 U VU VU VU N N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.1% 3.7% 2.9% 25kt / 24h 7.2% 20.6% 13.9% 30kt / 24h 4.0% 11.4% 7.7% 35kt / 24h 2.7% 11.4% 7.1% 40kt / 24h 1.0% 11.4% 6.2% 45kt / 36h 4.5% 15.0% 9.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 5.3% 2.6% 55kt / 48h 3.5% 9.1% 6.3% 70kt / 48h 0.6% 2.2% 1.4% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 1.1% 0.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.32 WP082023 230826 06UTC Storm Located at : 26.10 152.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.2 19.3 23.0 25.7 19.5 23.2 26.3 53.1 N N N N N N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 49.0 51.0 51.0 56.0 58.0 57.0 46.0 F F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 19.0 31.0 21.0 -2.0 -2.0 -24.0 -81.0 F VF VF VF N N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 3.6% 0.1% 1.9%