Rapid Intensification Guidance WP082023 230826 12UTC Storm Located at : 28.00 151.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 38.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 11.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.8 20.7 24.8 18.9 17.0 22.2 39.6 71.6 N N N N F N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 12.0 25.0 15.0 17.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 114.3 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3 65.0 32.4 10.9 N N N N N U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 34.0 27.0 28.0 -3.0 36.0 7.0 -25.0 -39.0 N U U U N U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 51.0 52.0 52.0 59.0 58.0 51.0 41.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 25.0 15.0 -5.0 0.0 -19.0 -32.0 -77.0 VU VU U F N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.8% 2.7% 2.3% 25kt / 24h 4.9% 16.2% 10.5% 30kt / 24h 3.4% 8.5% 6.0% 35kt / 24h 2.4% 8.5% 5.5% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 8.5% 4.7% 45kt / 36h 5.6% 12.7% 9.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 4.2% 2.1% 55kt / 48h 2.7% 5.1% 3.9% 70kt / 48h 1.1% 1.7% 1.4% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.58 WP082023 230826 12UTC Storm Located at : 28.00 151.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.8 20.7 24.8 18.9 17.0 22.2 39.6 71.6 N N N N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 51.0 52.0 52.0 59.0 58.0 51.0 41.0 F F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 25.0 15.0 -5.0 0.0 -19.0 -32.0 -77.0 VF VF F U N VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%